“The night is full of holes
As bullets rip the sky
Of ink with gold” Vertigo, U2
NVDA was showcased in Thursday morning’s report, The Market’s Job Number One Is To Deceive.
It spiked above 200 after reporting robust revenue and earnings growth along with strong forward guidance Wednesday night, but tailed off to close up only 2.70 at 195.56.
Wednesday’s print perpetuated a breakout over a near three month 3 point trendline triggering a Rule of 4 Buy signal.
It was an Elvis setup for the markets: Now or Never.
Now the cape belongs to The Matador.
We wrote in the report: “NVDA triggered a Rule of 4 Breakout above triple tops but breakage back below will get traders attention.
The downside pivot is around 186, where a rising trend line from the February low kicks in currently. The 50 day moving average resides at 185 currently.
Breakage below the bottom of NVDA’s sideways stint ties to its 200 day moving average. The 200 dma was tested in early February where the circled 3 Day Chart comes in at 171.03.”
An updated NVDA shows the price action—tailing off— after reporting served as a major market tell for a mini momentum crash. Often times, “small” steps become giant legs.
Fast moves come from false moves and NVDA’s Spike and Reversal back through the “breakout point” triggered a Trap Door on Thursday.
On the Hit and Run Private Twitter/X Feed we offered that strong results in NVDA opened the door for a run to 7100 + SPX.
The market had every excuse to use NVDA as a trigger for a ramp, but instead it acted as a catalyst for a momentum crush.
When does a crush turn into a crash?
I believe we are on the cusp of finding out.
These false breakouts (and breakdowns) don’t just happen. From my perspective, they are orchestrated.
What does big money require to trade size? Liquidity.
How does it get liquidity, by staging false moves and catching the vast majority of traders and their competition wrong-footed.
And then of course there’s OpEx Pinball, where a stock is driven from one extreme to the other creating 10-baggers in the options arena.
The die was cast well before Thursday’s open when most all glamours were taken to the woodshed.
MU tailed off into Wednesday’s close. Ditto LITE, LRCX, CIEN and the usual memory, optical, chip suspects.
Time and Price synergies suggest this may be the opening salvo from The Matador….a top in February of significance projected in our report from January simply titled February 2026.
In addition, we’ve showcased the 17 year ‘Locust Cycle’ in markets due to hit in 2026.
From the start of the 1949 secular bull market that ran into FEBRUARY 1966 is 17 years.
From the start of the March 6, 2009 bull market we have advanced 17 years.
Next week is early March.
There is another major cycle set to exert its downside influence.
From the 1949 low to the 1987 crash low is 38 years.
Another 38 years is 2025.
The leader, the NDX, topped on October 29, 2025—an interesting anniversary in league with our idea of a 96 year mirror image fold-back potentially in play.
What’s interesting is that on the Square of 9 Wheel, the number 38 squares-out with January 28.
This suggests that January 28, 2026 may be the Secondary High, a geometric Gann, 90 day/degrees from the October 29 Primary High.
The angle of attack to the downside since January 28, despite a handful of frenzied little darlings chasing the momentum,
Looks like we got a minor Wave 1 down into February 5 followed by an A B C corrective Wave 2 into Wednesday Feb 25.
If correct, yesterday may be the kickoff of a dramatic Wave 3.
Is the stage set for a Wave 3 drop next week?
After more than 40 years of trading, I can tell you this plainly. My market calls have never been more accurate than they are right now.
In one of the most volatile, whip-last environments we’ve ever seen, out Weekly Swing Method along with our Square of 9 Time/Price Calculator have been refined to a pont where they are producing consistent, repeatable results—including nailing the 128,000 top in Bitcoin simply calling the coming carnage “Hiroshima”.
That isn’t luck.
It’s the result of decades spent developing tactics and strategies to “ride the wave and catch The Turn”.
As a friend and fellow trader calls it: Ride the Tiger, Beware the Dismount.