“There’s a place up ahead and I’m goin’
Just as fast as my feet can fly” Up Around The Bend, John Fogerty
A Jail Break rally started in mid-September which took it to its historic highs where a consolidation played out.
A parabolic Lock Out Rally took over when it came out of a Cup and Handle in late November into late December where it left a large range outside down day (LROD) signal reversal bar..
When that bar was cleared, it triggered a Keyser Soze continuation buy signal…a Reversal of a Reversal. It went vertical.
Drilling down to the breakout from the Cup and Handle shows the explosive move from 60 to 82
It overthrew a parallel Tops Line and is attacking the top parallel channel (light blue) Sunday night.
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you must be living on the Moon.
Of course it’s silver.
It ran up to the 1980 and 2010 double tops and pulled back leaving a weekly
Plus One/Minus Two Buy setup in late October where it traced out a weekly A B C Bull Flag.
A long term monthly silver shows it went ballistic crossing the trend line from the 1980-2011 double tops.
It drove through the green Measured Moves..
Note the frenzy didn’t start immediately when silver came out of a monthly Cup and Handle/ or inverse Head and Shoulders or a Rule of 4 Breakout in 2024. Call the pattern what you will.
The frenzy started in late 2025, above 35.
It’s reminiscent of the coil created in 2005 prior to a vertical move.
Notice the sharp shake-out in 2008-2009 in synch with the stock market decline.
That will happen again.
It was followed by a Run for the Roses into 2011.
Notably that top was a Throw Over…typical of commodities.
The bear market from 2011 bottomed in December 2015 but silver went sideways until the Undercut Low in 2020.
March 2025 is the anniversary of this important 5 year cycle.
What I want to point out is the red Bottoms Line from the 2009 low connecting the 2019/2020 lows and the 2022 low.
I paralleled a line off the 2011 top and silver looks like its hitting it as I write tonight.
Maybe it overthrows it.
Do you want to buy it here?
Despite the December 29 LROD Reversal, silver only traded below a prior days low.
It could not even trace out two consecutive lower daily lows.
In fact silver has only seen 1 day pullbacks since coming out of its Cup and Handle in late November.
Silver went ballistic when the LROD Reversal couldn’t produce a correction.
It turned into a Freight Train Rally.
Clearing the little 4 day consolidation, on Thursday, it looks like the conductor had a heart attack and keeled over on the lever controlling the speed.
Will the Silver Streak Locomotive come off the tracks or will the conductor revive and pull the break?
Interestingly, silver bottomed in synch with the stock market on April 7, 2025.
We cannot dismiss the potential square-out out in silver at 106/107 region being in synch with a turn in stock indexes.
From that 28 April low, a 900 degree move is 106/107, straight across and opposite 28.
Drilling down to a short term picture shows two sets of channels converging at this same region.
In sum, last week began with a meaningful sell-off but the market steadily recovered through the remaining sessions.
The pattern of the 4 planet conjunction noted last week will remain active this week.
As well Saturn and Jupiter are square each other.
Last week we mentioned the major high in mid-July 1990, that was a Saturn opposition Jupiter.
Remember these are Gann’s Chronocators or Time Keeper.
As flagged last week we also have Saturn conjunct Neptune, a 36 year (6 squared) cycle that last occurred in January 1990…180 days/degrees prior to the July 1990 top.
This is going to be triple conjunction on January 23 with the Moon also conjunct Saturn and Neptune.
The square aspect between Jupiter and Saturn, combined with the ongoing multi-planet conjunction is likely to trigger massive volatility across major indices.
These planetary combinations often create sudden swings, sharp reversals and unexpected intraday movements,.
Traders must stay alert.
The SPX has been dead calm for the last two days following Tuesday’s large gap down and close below the 50 dma followed by Wednesday’s large recapture of the 50 day.
We are up around the bend, literally. The market should resolve its indecision pattern this week.
But as noted, massive volatility may whipsaw the signal with noise.
My expectation is still that we are on the edge of around a 10% correction.
Tuesday the SPX triggered an Angular Rule of 4 Sell signal and is back-testing that Line.
The big picture pattern is best exemplified by the weekly SPX.
It had what looks like a false breakout early this month, plunged to test its 20 week moving average for only the second time since the advance off the April low and is back–testing the broken trend line.
Another drop below last weeks low and the 20 week moving average should be a point of recognition for bulls and bears alike perpetuating accelerated momentum to the downside.
MSFT, META and TSLA will report earnings on Wednesday after the close, followed by AAPL on Thursday after the close.
I think Thursday has the potential to see particularly bearish momentum.
Option premiums will be extremely expensive due to elevated implied volatility, so the ideal play may be to wait until Wednesday for a bearish bet to avoid premium decay.
Once earnings are out, better opportunities may emerge for both directional and volatility-based trades.
Roadmap for Monday
An pullback into 10:15 from an opening high.
A choppy rally into 12:00 followed by a drop into 1:15.
A rally into 2:00 that carves out a saw-tooth consolidation followed by a sharp rally into the close.
That said, it must be noted that there is a possible Inversion Pivot right at 1:15 where a low prior to a rally is indicated.
There is also a possible Inversion Pivot early in the session at 10:00.