“The Game taught me the Game” Jesse Livermore
“Thus geometry creates numbers, and numbers create geometry. And any full understanding should come from observing and studying both simultaneously.” Robert Grant
“And you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it’s sinking
Racing around to come up behind you again.” Time, Pink Floyd
Today is the 3rd anniversary of the Primary High on November 22, 2021.
3 years is 360 X 3 which is 1080 degrees or two cubes of 540 degrees.
This is why big market turns play out in 3 year cycles…like 1929 to 1932.
Like 2000 to 2003.
October 1987 to October 1990. Etc.
We’ll do a deep dive of the meaning of this 1080 degree/3 year periodicity in Monday’s report
Below is an SPX of the top from 3 years ago
In truth, that Primary High started in early November 2021.
The SPX dropped 238 points in 7 days or roughly 5% from the November 22nd signal reversal bar.
Of course, the market had to rally into the close of the year for performance considerations.
Then, as in early January, the plug was pulled from the Opening Bell in 2022.
From a high of 4818 the SPX slid to 3636 to the Primary Low SIX MONTHS or 180 degrees later in June 17th, 2022.
The market carved out an Undercut Low/Bull Trap in October 2022 at 3491.
The intervening high between the June 2022 low and the October 2022 low was August 16th.
So two years ago there was a pivot high in August 2022 in a mirror image foldback of the August pivot low this year.
This year we had a pivot high on October 13th producing a 170 point into early November.
I can’t help but wonder if early November 2024 is a mirror image foldback of the start of the distribution top from November 5th, 2021.
From the August 5th, 2024 low to November 5th Trump Pivot is precisely 90 days/degrees
From the August 5th low a full 5 wave count has been satisfied…potentially the cherry on top culminating 5 waves from the banana boat blow-off that started in late October 2023.
From the Wave 5 high at 6017 the SPX left an Island Top followed by a possible A Wave decline.
Yesterday the index rallied into Phil D Gap.
Phil D Gap may end up reconciling Katy Bar the Door at the B Wave Café if indeed yesterday was a kiss goodbye.
We should know in short order as a sharp C Wave decline would show up.
There is an alternate count which indicates the Wave 3 high is possible wave 5 with the labeled wave 4 being an A wave decline instead.
That suggest the all-time high was a false B wave high to be followed by a wicked B Wave downdraft.
To occur from the 3rd anniversary of the orthodox top in late November 2021 would be fitting.
In either event, 5700 and then 5400 should be on deck.
There is some good symmetry with a drop to 5400 on the horizon as it is the bottom of a trend channel for the year 2024.
In sum we have little triple bottoms at 5863 that tie to the 20 day moving average and the October highs.
Below that are little triple bottoms at the 5700 region.
Breakage below 5863 opens the door to 5700.
Be that as it may, notice there is an open gap at 5803 that ties to the 50 day line.
The bottom line is breakage below 5800 should see one fell swoop to the 5700 region.
If the break below this weeks lows should occur on a gap, it will produce a larger Island Top to the mini Island Top from Nov 7th to Nov 15th.
There is a reason why the low 5700’s has acted as support: it is 360 degrees down from the 6017 all-time high.
540 degrees down is 5560.
Two price cycles of 360 degrees (720 degrees) down from the all-time high is 5412…the bottom of the trend channel.
As it happens, 541 (5410) on the Square of 9 Wheel squares-out with December 21st, the Winter Solstice.
Interestingly, this December 21st is the 4 year anniversary (48 months) of the Great Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in 2020.
It is a powerful conjunction because it fell on the Winter Solstice.
We have walked through how that date has produced major turning points in this space.
For example the Covid Crash low was 90 degrees from the Conjunction.
The Christmas Crash low in 2018 was 720 degrees before the Conjunction.
The top in 2021 was defined by the Conjunction.
This January is 49 months from the Dec 21st Jupiter/Saturn Conjunction.
7 squared (in this case in moonts) is W.D. Gann’s Panic Zone.
This December is the 83rd anniversary of Pearl Harbor.
Monday’s report will show the relationship between how cycles of war this December vibrate off the U.S. entry into WW2.
Just yesterday a man was arrested who was going to blow up the NYSE.
This week with the help of the outgoing administration Ukraine sent long range missiles into Russia.
Crashes don’t come from too much bullishness, but from excess complacency.