Pundits will tell us that markets this holiday-shortened week have moved in response to expectations surrounding the Budget Bill.
They always pin market action on the news.
While the process remains ongoing, a growing consensus that a deal—one way or another—will be reached before next week.
The more pressing and consequential question is: What happens next?
That question is not about the bill itself, but the broader market trend shaping up for the second half of 2025.
The passage of legislation does not alter the structural realities, cyclical pressures (up or down) and sentiment extremes in motion.
Those issues will be the focus of what Monday’s article.
In that price, we’ll lay out our view of the macro and technical setup for the second half and our expectations for a pullback and the potential for further froth into the fall.
On Wednesday, the DJIA eased 10 points after Tuesday’s surge, the SPX rallied 20 and the NAZ added 190.
Breadth was solidly positive.
Net advances came in at +1,276 on the NYSE and +1,649 on the NAZ
The Q’s were set up for a second consecutive lower low on Wednesday—especially after quarter-end—
But left a TD setup. This is the first turndown after an Uptrust or breakout to new swing highs—in this case—the breakout is the blue sky above the December/February double tops.
July 7 is 90 days/degrees from the April 7 low and squares-out with 561. The Q’s struck a high of 562.80 on Monday.
The market never met a rumor it didn’t like.
Instead of HOOD, it was announced that DDOG is going to replace JNPR in the S&P 500.
DDOG is up 14 points pre-market filling a gap from Feb 13.
It broke out of its down trend from early December in late May.
GLD and SLV also stuck bottoms in early April.
So the end of the first week of July is a pivot there as well.
SLV looks set to come out of a Bull Pennant.
GLD has a high level consolidation since April 22 when it topped in the region of our 312-317 projection.
I failure to breakout going into this 90 day cycle from its early April low when a “triple top” looms as grist for the bull mill suggests a deeper correction—especially if it breaks out to a new high and quickly reverses.
SNPS and CDNS are up sharply premarket as US lifts export control of chip design software to China.
AAPL is coming of a sharp 3 day spike that turned its 3 Day Chart up with authority.
It will be interesting to see its action of 2 consecutive daily lower lows for a possible +1/-2 buy setup.
A higher high today in TSLA will put it in the -1/+2 sell position on a backtest of its declining 20 DMA for a Holy Grail sell.
The crosscurrents amongst the froth are stunning as the SPX challenges this early July potential pivot/square-out.
You a year I could help but wonder if a mirror image foldback was on the table from the 1929-1932 episode.
Of course July 8th is the anniversary of the 1932 low.
November 13th is the anniversary of the Great Crash low in 1929.