Another day of relentless indiscriminate selling drove the SPX, the McClellan Oscillator and the Summation Index to new lows for the move.
The QQQ followed suit hitting new lows.
While the downtrend is firmly in place as the quickest decline since Covid in 2020, every Friday since February 19 has been up.
Even before the overnight futes suggest a reflex rally is likely on Friday, several key stocks were hinting of a rally.
NVDA, APP and AMAT registered gains for Thursday.
Other pivotal names such as SNOW and META setup for a rebound.
SNOW tailed up closing well off session lows tracing out an Up Down Up Sequence from last Friday.
META satisfied a 540 degree decline for a possible cube-out.
540 degrees down from the 741 Feb 14 high is 587.
META had its largest 1 day decline since its high, hitting a low of 587 Thursday.
The 3 Week Chart on both the Q’s and the SPX turned down this week.
360 degrees down from the QQQ 541 Feb 19 high is 452 which is on the March 19th axis.
March 19 is the tail end of the Gann Panic Zone.
90 degrees up from 452 is 474/465.
That is the upside pivot. Breakage above 475 theoretically opens the door to 500…major resistance as seen above.
The SPX satisfied a 720 degree decline to 5535 on Tuesday and closed below that level yesterday.
A rebound of 90 degrees targets 5610.
180 degrees up is the key 5685 region—key because it is 540 degrees down from the 6147 all-time high.
The SPX 50 hour moving average rejected the index on a rally attempt on March 3rd and currently resides at 5645.
My hourly Pocket Pivot resides at 5588 coincident with a declining trendline on the hourlies.
In sum since the all time Feb 19 high, every time the SPX has rallied above a prior days high, it has defined a pivot high. The downtrend is so dominant, that the SPX has been unable to carve out two consecutive higher daily highs.
Thursday’s high is 5598. That’s a 77 point rally from yesterday’s close if the dailies are going to turn up.
The overnight futes as I write Thursday night are up half 77 points.
Can the SPX see a Measured Move of the opening range today?
The SPX is now down 10.1 from its February 19 high.
The NAZ has dropped 13.%.
Now that the media can proclaim we are in “correction territory”, is more than a one to two day countertrend rally on deck?
Probably, but probably AFTER we are past the Gann Panic Zone…at least March 18/19.
This time the virus is political.
More downside is coming, whether the market devolves into a full blown crash or plunges further after a corrective upleg.
The market has been following the analogue of the 2020 crash closely.
Because of major cycles exerting their downside influence and the potential completion of 5 major uplegs from the 932 low, the analogue takes on more potential.