“The whole crowd goes so loud
He opens his mouth, but the words won’t come out
He’s choking, how? Everybody’s jokin’ now
The clock’s run out time’s up, over, blaow
Snap back to reality, ope, there goes gravity.” Lose Yourself Eminem
On Fed Day the, Q’s snapped a rising hourly trend line for the monthly low, and backtested it as FMOC Cha Cha played out.
It looks like a perfect short setup into the run-off, except that the rebound was apparently front-running for extraordinary numbers in MSFT and META—
We will see whether M & M “melts up in your mouth, not in your hand.” — whether the chasers choke or the spikes before the clock runs out and they melt after month-end make-up er mark-up considerations.
This “double team” has the SPX set for another drive to test the key 6410 square-out for month end today.
If you were the big money driving this crazy train a Starburst pattern would seem to be the perfect way to distribute stock in these two gorillas as players who missed the move look to buy every dip as they pullback looking for the prior strength to be revisited.
Clearing this momentum on top of momentum is obviously a sign of continuation versus a climax…right?
To recap 6410 is a Time/Price square-out because 641 is opposite March 6, the 2009 low.
It is also square 666/667 the price at the 2009 low.
There is always synergy between major lows and major highs in the market.
That doesn’t mean that 6410 MUST be the high. It means it could be the high.
The behavior at this juncture will confirm…or not.
A daily chart reflects the logic of this region of resistance…or Line of Most Resistance.
I extended the trend line (dark red) that defined the Break Point in February 2025.
The SPX back-tested it this week.
Given the exuberance, it would not be surprising to see The Line eclipsed followed by a swift reversal back below if this Ghost Line intends to haunt the market.
A steep trendline from the April 7 bottom broke in May…leading to a consolidation.
You can see how that mid May time frame is pivotal in producing a short-term channel.
The SPX shows a third point at the top of this channel that intersects the dark red Ghost Line.
The bottom of this little trend channel ties to 6200.
I paralleled a line off the trend line defining the move up off the April 7 low.
This is the black trend line.
It ties roughly to this 6200 region as well.
On the Hit and Run Private Twitter/X Feed we outline the 90 degree decrements to look for.
An undercut of the short-term channel ties to the 50 day line and the black Bottoms Line near 6100.
That represents a backtest of the February high.
The normal expectation is that a correction should test the prior resistance….just as the April low tested the January 2022 top.
NVDA is the largest cap stock in the market and as such will be the “tell of tells”,
It struck a low of 86.62 on April 7.
85 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite April 7 for a Time/Price square-out.
Notice the large range reversal on April 7.
Range precedes price.
Currently we see that 184/185 aligns with/squares-out with July 31, month-end.
It will be important to watch the behavior at this price region in NVDA.
If it corrects from here, 90 degrees down is 170/171 which ties to the 20 day moving average.
The 20 day ma has acted as support since it was regained in early May.
NVDA has never violated its 20 dma since May.
As remarkable, is that NVDA has turned its 3 Day Chart down only once in the entire advance.
That was on June 23rd and defined the low prior to NVDA’s vertical run.
In sum, the SPX tested and Pinochio’d a short term Bottoms Line from April June 23 on Wednesday before rebounding.
The SPX now has a 3 point trend line, breakage of which (Rule of 4 Sell) will produce a correction…at the very least.
IF it should happen today which looks like the short straw (the very short straw) it would turn the SPX 3 Day Chart down for only the second time since it turned back up in May.
That turn up in our Swing Method (the 3 Day and 3 Week Chart) green-lighted the rally.
Is there anyone, anyone who knew how green green would be?
NVDA doesn’t report until August…180 degrees opposite the February high.
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