Early this year we wrote a report, Gold—When Will the Melt Up Begin.
To quote:
Gold has gone nowhere essentially since it topped in the summer of 2011.
Aside from a $75 vertical run when GLD exploded from a low of 119.50 in April/May 2019 to 195.50 in August 2020, GLD has tortured gold bulls and bugs.
I think there is a strong likelihood we’re about to echo the 2019-2020 parabolic run…at a minimum.
There was a Angular Rule of 4 Breakout (a breakout over a 3 point declining trend line) on May 31st, 2019 that kick-started that advance.
It mirrors the Rule of 4 Breakout triggered here on March 1st, 2024.
Interestingly, the 119.50 to 195.50 advance is a cube-out of 540 degrees.
If the current breakout mirrors that move measuring from the November 2022 low of 150.50 it projects a 540 degree rally to 233.
But first GLD has to clear 203 which is 360 degrees up from 150.50, the major October/November 2022 low.
In addition to 233 being a cube-out of 540 degrees from the 150.50 October 2022 low, 540 degrees in time or 18 months from October 2022 is April 2024.
Measuring from the October 2023 low of 156, a 180 degree move is 196.
GLD eclipsed 196 in early March (2024). Consequently this opens the door to the next decrement of 90 degrees higher or 210.
A full 360 degrees up from 168 is 224.
From the February 2024 low of 183.78, the 90 degree decrements up are as follows:
90 degrees = 212
270 degrees = 226
A full 360 degrees = 242
A big inverse Head & Shoulders pattern projects to 236.50
This ties closely to the aforesaid 540 degree rally to 233.
The convergence of these two projections produces a strong likelihood that this 233/236 region will act as a strong vibration compelling GLD higher.
I don’t know what gold is sniffing out, Powell having to lower rates of war cycles, but if GLD mirrors the duration of the 15 month run from the big June 2019 breakout, it will be up throughout the year.
What’s happened to gold since we wrote the above early this year?
Well on Thursday GLD struck an all-time new high of 236.45.
Our projection has been met with GLD gaping out of a Bull Flag at its 20 day moving average.
A Rembrandt of a setup.
As well 236 aligns with early September on the Sq of 9 Wheel.
233 cubes-out the major 150.50 low and points to September 23rd.
September should be an important inflection point for the metals…as it has been historically so often (think 2011).
Follow through above this price region and time area, indicates accelerated momentum to 249 to 252.
Above that opens the door to 265 to 268.
In sum, a year ago when we were pounding the table on the precious metals we were taking a lot of incoming on twitter.
So if this sounds like a victory lap in Cricketsville, well, yeah.
Folks wanted to get into debates about reasons why a pet rock was trumped by coin rock and, well you’ve heard the arguments as to gold being an ancient relic.
I’m a trader. Don’t tell me why, tell me when.
Now is an interesting juncture. Gold has an opportunity to go vertical….if it can clear the current square-out levels AND the top of a monthly channel.
As well, clearing this September anniversary time factor also potentially opens the door to be magnetized sharply higher into October.
October squares-out with the 185/186 high from September 2011.
That was 276 months ago. 276 also squares out with October.
A further explosion in the metals over another month can do a lot of damage to the gold shorts.
High how will gold and silver be when the crickets start yelling like hyena’s.