“You sure are lookin’ good
You’re everything that a big bad wolf could want.” Li’l Red Riding Hood, San the Sham
Has the return of meme mania and SPACs on crack marked a market top?
Are names like OPEN and KSS and GPRO the frog jumping out of the boiling cauldron of speculative juices?
If retail can weaponize the tape against the pros is it any different than the big money weaponizing stocks against
Retrial traders?
Algomatics have been at war with each other for the last decade…at least.
Brokerage firms have weaponized options gamma to reap outsized profits for who knows how long.
Anyone who’s been in the game for a while knows as my dad used to say, “Stocks don’t move, they are moved.”
Wall Street has just manufactured new instruments.
My concern is they may turn out to be weapons of mass destruction when The Turn comes.
It’s accumulate and then drive the stock higher.
Distribute and then the hammer the stock lower
All with the fulcrum of underlying options.
We know we aren’t playing against choir boys.
It’s Goldy lobotomizing Muppets.
But what we’ve seen since the October 2022 low is a streak of unsophisticated investors entering the market who have learned to do some fleecing and ganging up on stock just like the big boys.
Is today’s leverage in ETF’s, single stock ETF’s, and all manner of derivatives akin to the 10% leverage that drove the market to smithereens in the late 1920’s.
Futures aren’t enough we need options on futures. It’s paper on paper on paper—perfectly mirroring the Paper-Printed Economy.
Efficient market hypothesis states that asset prices reflect all available information
That implies that market prices are set by rational investors not emotional hyenas battling schizoid poker-faced hedge.
The market has become nothing more than a long squeeze and a short squeeze machine.
Wash on, wash off.
This isn’t your mother’s market. At one point, markets functioned somewhat normally.
Today options and the passive bid trump the tape.
The market its Weekend at Bernie’s meets Keith Richards.
All’s fair in love and war in the name of liquidity I suppose. Liquidity, the music of the market.
If it offers liquidity, God bless it’s pointed little head.
Who cares about fundamentals and value, “it’s about PRICE, bro?” Right?
Well Gann aficionado’s know that Time is more important than Price.
Do you ever, ever hear ‘mavens’ on CNBC talk about TIME?
Hard to dissect time. It’s the big T-Rex in the ointment.
When Time gets hungry, everything changes direction like a school of fish—all at once.
We been led to believe it’s all about price. Price justifies itself because the bromides that Price is always right and Price Pays have become a mantra on Wall Street, like a conga line of capitalist Hare Krishna dancing to the cling and clang of the currency of immediate gratification.
Well Price is great until it lies.
It leaves tell tale signs.
Monday’s report will look at the anatomy of how price left blaring sirens at some major historical tops, like 1929.
It’s true, you don’t have to be a weatherman to tell which way the winds blowing, but you do need to be a technician to tell when the market’s gonna blow.
You see Price is its own justification. You hear the guests on CNBC confusing brains with bullishness every day.
The Passive Trade backstops the bi-polar stroller.
The other music of the market is an undeniable rhythm and Vibration…. Of time and price weaving PATTERN.
Within the chaos and manipulation there are repeatable patterns and periodicity.
In sum the bidding up of worthless assets in Memeville and Spacland should give us insight into how the rest of the “real market” is priced.
Basically the Option Tail Wags the Market Dog.
It’s Fat Man and Little Boy on the see-saw hall of fame.
You put your thumb on the option scale in size the underlying stock has to be bought or sold as the case may be.
Gamma you have such big teeth.
All of this works to the bullish virtuous circle of the market, until the song changes and there is an passive bid unwind or a gamma flit and Mr. Market realizes he’s been practicing karate with a gorilla.
Then it’s Brad Pitt meets Bruce Lee in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood.
Wash on, wash off.
It’s the Karate Kidding Market.
I was looking for the Ketu eclipse with Mars to produce a sharp downturn.
At the 6336 square-out.
It looks like we got an inversion with a mirror image at yesterday’s SPX close of 6363.
The SPX left a another reversal day to the downside. A Lizard sell.
This is another reversal in a series of down to up and up to down reversals since the July 8 anniversary of the 1932 Great Depression low,
We have seen some evidence of Airpocketism in marquee names:
NFLX, TXN, IBM, NFLX, CRCL, CRWV and TSLA yesterday.
Interestingly 93 on the Square of 9 Wheel points to/vibrates of July 24.
Wouldn’t it be something if July 24 turned out to be an important peak.
There is some reason to be suspect as Wednesday’s breakouts in IWM and the DJIA
The DJIA did not follow thru from Wednesday’s breakout, but yesterday may have simply been a Pause Day.
Breakage below Wednesday’s gap that sticks is no Bueno.
IWM on the other hand reversed yesterday and is flirting with a Jump the Creek sell signal
The Truth Teller has a reputation for false moves turning into fast moves.
If these gaps get offset—with downside follow thru, the market wolf in sheep’s clothing gets exposed.
With the market playing AC/DC and alternating up days with down days every session this week, is the market set for an up day today after Thursday’s reversal?
It’s a Friday in the summer. Thin. So if there is an agenda, the market can be pushed any way on the run-off.