“ooh what a beautiful buzz…” Loving Cup, The Rolling Stones
“Taxation isn’t theft. Capitalism is.” Mamdani
What will the loss of hundreds of thousands of law abiding citizens mean for New York City?
Polls show that 9% of the entire population of New York City say they will leave if Mun-dummy won.
This would be the largest population flight in US history.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to answer that question.
When large numbers of law-abiding citizens leave any area, conditions get worse. And when conditions get worse, that motivates even more law abiding citizens to leave.
The heart and soul of capitalism is entering a horrifying death spiral and the stock market is seemingly oblivious.
One of the reasons why New York City is one of the most important cities in the world is because of the vast amount of wealth located there.
The top 1% of earners in NYC pay around half the city’s income taxes.
This disintermediation is going to cause shockwaves politically and financially.
Many New Yorkers are moving to Florida causing a land boom.
This is another echo of the 1920’s—the Florida Land Boom of the 1920’s
Of course we know that the recent market top was on October 29, a day of infamy exiling speculation
From markets for nearly 12 years until 1942.
Thursday is November 13, the 96th anniversary of the 1929 crash low (prior to 5 month countertrend rally).
Friday the SPX undercut it 50 day moving average with authority for the first time since reclaiming it on May 1st following the April 7th low.
The first time a market does something it almost always shakes it off.
This was the case Friday… perpetuated by a stunning Time/Price square-out on the QQQ—
660 squares November 7 (Friday).
Maybe something, maybe nothing but the DJIA tested/undercut its 200 day moving average on October 4, 1929.
It hadn’t tested its 200 DMA for a year.
The October 4, 1929 test of the 200 DMA perpetuated a 4 to 6 day rally…on a gap up.
The 3 Day Chart did not turn up in that rally.
When the October 4 pivot low was taken out, The Great Crash started…on a gap down.
Monday the SPX gapped up after undercutting its 50 DMA as offered above really for the first time since May.
A multi-day rally takes us into mid-November which ties to the 1929 crash low in keeping with a potential mirror image foldback.
IF we should rally from here for 5 to 6 days and roll over, we should be on high alert.
If in turn the SPX then takes out Friday’s low, it will be a blaring siren.
There is reason for concern.
While the agreement to reopen the government sparked a surge in markets with the SPX up over 100 points, breadth, however, was far less impressive than the headline gains might suggest.
Net advances totaled 948 on the NYSE and 1604 on the NAZ.
Weaker yet, though, the 10 day average of the net new high of both exchange fell even deeper into negative territory.
The agreement to open the government is Alt Print function.
Gold and silver exploded.
SLV gapped up over its 20 DMA triggering a Rule of 4 Buy signal
Offsetting the downside gap fro Oct 21 Island Top could elicit a further stampede.
This week squares 49. Is it possible SLV spikes to 49 this week?
GLD has a similar pattern to SLV.
But Monday’s surge in the metals is best seen in GDXJ.
GDXJ had traced out a Bear Flag of lower lows and lower highs.
Yesterday’s large gap had the whiff of urgent buying leading to GDXJ reclaiming both its 20 and 50 DMA’s.
The bullish change of complexion follows a turn down of GDXJ’s 3 Week Chart last week.
In sum, GDXJ looks set to kiss the low of its high bar week at 101.25
Whether this push carves out a secondary high or is the start of a new leg up, we will know soon enough.