“And you can send me dead flowers every morning
Send me dead flowers by the US mail.” Dead Flowers, The Rolling Stones
“The roadmap for today indicates a sharp turn to the downside into 11:30 after an early rally attempt.”
The above is from Monday’s Hit and Run Report, Interim High On Deck.
On the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed we went on to day before the open: “My hourly Pocket Pivot is at 5500, below that opens the door lower today.
An hourly Rule of 4 Breakout was triggered on Thursday at around 5460 which currently ties to the 20 hour moving average.
In sum, theoretically breakage below 5500 opens the door to 5460. I could be today.”
The SPX rallied briefly on the open and rolled over, dropping to 5668.
The reversal produced the first turndown in the 3 Hour Chart (3 consecutive lower hourly lows) since the rally off last Monday’s low as well it satisfied the first test of the 20 hour moving average during the one week advance.
The “Combo” led to a turn back up in the 3 Hour Chart.
Yesterday we flagged that 475 to 480 region is likely to be staunch resistance in the QQQ.
This is because 475 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite December 16th, the Primary high in the Q’s.
As well 480 is 90 degrees square the Feb 19th Secondary High in the Q’s.
360 degrees up from the Q’s 402 April 7 low is 486. Above 480 opens the door to a buying climax to 486.
However if the Q’s are going to push that high in this time frame, momentum needs to show up and persist.
Why?
402 and 86 align with May 2nd.
Interestingly, May 2nd is 270 days/degrees from the August , 2024 waterfall low.
The mid-point between the two dates is early November, the low prior to the Trump election spike to the
November 16, Primary High in the Q’s.
Technically, last weeks momentum in the Q’s was triggered by an Angular Rule of 4 Breakout.
The breakout was coincident with recapturing the 20 day moving average at the 454 region.
This is the downside pivot that must hold as part of a bullish structure.
Breakage below 454 opens the door to the 418 region and a test of the closing lows for the year…or lower.
That is the presumption if the Q’s are carving out an A B C counter-trend rally.
It ties to a drop in the SPY to the 501/502 region…which squares-out with late-May.
In sum the last trading day of every month a major basket of index options expires.
April 30th will be coupled with GDP and PCE.
The old saw is nothing good happens with the market below its 200 day moving average.
With the market running up into this period, and the indexes below their 200 day moving averages, look for the news to break with the time and price cycles.
