“Come on and tease me like you do.” Squeezebox, The Who
Mid-session Wednesday it was announced that Trump had penned a letter to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump had asked GOP lawmakers if he should fire Powell which looked like a trial balloon for cover.
The market dove. The SPX shed 50 points in 30 mins.
Then it came all the way back to close above where the “news” hit.
They the Trumpster said it’s “highly unlikely” he will fire Powell, whatever that’s supposed to mean.
He doesn’t say it won’t happen.
I guess he didn’t like the market’s reaction.
Be that as it may, between the Tariff negotiations and his feud with Elon and Powell, headline roulette is the trade du jour.
It’s Chinatown Donny.
If you can have a Marxist on the verge of becoming major of the heart of Capitalism, who’s to say the tape is nutty,
Maybe he’ll seize Trump Tower for the migrants in NYC if he becomes major.
In sum following a near Key Reversal Day on Taco Tuesday, the SPX left a bottoming tail on Wednesday.
It’s Tail to Tail. Which way will it break.
My gut is that after Wednesday’s morning’s slide the rebound is a backtest of Tuesday’s signal reversal bar.
It should be easy to tell in the early going today.
That said after all the antics, The QQQ actually scored a record closing high.
SMH is still sporting a possible Island Top…but barely.
That said the chips are a mixed bag.
Our MU short for Wednesday followed thru to the downside with authority.
CDNS was in a position to rally and rolled over filling a large open gap and testing its 20 dma.
On the other side of the ledger, AMD turned its dailies down on Wednesday for a TNT buy setup and exploded nearly 7 points off the morning low. An Opening Range Breakout sealed the deal.
ARM exploded after reclaiming its 20 dma and looks like it OpEx Pinball is in play to the 160 strike.
ARM is a good example of a Side Door Entry, long, on the pullback into this morning’s Gap & Go from the opening bell.
Today I want to show how Hit and Run uses the Opening Range Breakout, a break above or below the first half-hour range which often times telegraphs a trend day up or down.
However, often, after triggering an up ORB, Mr. Market’s markets mandarins, the Algomatics, will shake the tree before a directional move kicks in.
Let’s take a look at two examples of long plays for Hit and Run on Wednesday, CRCL and ORCL.
A 10 minute CRCL shows an up ORB was triggered at 212.42, CRCL didn’t exploded immediately, it stutter-stepped for a while.
The tip-off to the ramp higher was that when the Trump Powell Pivot escapade hit the tape, CRCL didn’t get hit.
It is a good example of a Torpedo, as in Damn the Torpedo’s.
All trading is contextual.
Pulling back the lens on CRCL dailies and hourlies shows the setup.
An hourly CRCL shows a Rule of 4 Breakout (over a 3 point declining trendline) in sync with Wednesday mornings Breakaway Gap.
From the 171/172 swing low on July 1st low, 360 degrees up is 228.
Another 90 degrees up is 243.
Notice how CRCL went into overdrive when it cleared 228, running directly to 239.70
A full 540 degrees for a cube-out up from the 172 low is 260.
Notice how that ties to horizontal resistance and a Ghost Line from the IPO low of 64,
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A daily CRCL gives a fuller picture of the Ghost Line and how it ties to the 260 square-out region.
In sum, after Bleedback into Wednesday’s range, the presumption is CRCL will drive toward the 260 strike into Option Expiration Friday.
Let’s look at ORCL which was a long idea for Wednesday.
A daily ORCL shows the surge following the Breakaway Gap on June 12.
The breakout coincided with a Rule of 4 Breakout.
Taken together the Combo signal telegraphed a 100% move off the lows which has been satisfied in July.
A 10 minute ORCL for Wednesday breaks down the price action.
It wasn’t as easy as the daily makes it look.
An Opening Range Breakout was 235.70ish.
An up ORB triggered in the early going, but ORCL flushed out on the Powell Ready Fire Aim spiel.
However when ORCL cleared the Opening Range Breakout level again at 12;00, it was a Lock Out Rally into the bell.
Amazing.
The moral of the story: the second mouse ORB got the cheese.
I’ve been doing this a long time, and one of the most important tactics in my experience is that Re-triggers often hit pay dirt.
Clearly that was the case with ORCL on Wednesday.
720 degrees up from the 119 April 7 low is 222.
ORCL exploded over 222.
Another 180 degrees up is 253.
July 17 squares-out with 245.
ORCL is on a trajectory to the 245 strike this week.
