For Whom The Bull Tolls

“Don’t ask for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.” Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls

“There is no one thing that’s true. It’s all true.” Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls

“That which is not but should be is more real than that which merely is.” Zoe Lund

“Karma police, arrest this man
He talks in maths,” Karma Police, Radio Head

For Whom The Bull Tolls. That was the title of a report I wrote in mid-July 2007 at the Primary High.

I remember receiving an email from a member saying “you couldn’t wait to go over from The Street.com to Minyanville to put your foot in your mouth.
Come on…you were the only bear on The Street.com. Cancel my subscription.”

Well one would have thought that alone would have made this youte nervous.
After perfecting a Secondary High in LATE OCTOBER 2007 that we called to the day with a piece “It’s A Dead Man’s Party” as the index rallied to a FALSE RECORD HIGH, the Deluge began. In September 2008, I emailed our friend, “You like apples?”
Hey it was an unforgettable movie, Good Will Hunting.

With me, what you see is what you get. I go out on the proverbial limb and call it like I see it.
I think that’s what you expect. Right or wrong.

The bottom line is one of the most important concepts in this game is not to confuse being bearish intellectually with taking long setups.

As W.D. Gann his own self taught, “The fastest moves and most extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles when the most money can be made..”
Is that what we’re getting from Jan/Feb 2025 into the one year cycle?

I’ve written about a 43 year cycle from August 1982.
From the 1929 crash counting 43 years out gives late 1972…just before the Rug Pull from the false breakout in early January 1973.
The market was bearish for 9 years from that high.

The vast majority of traders confuse the strength that Gann spoke about at the end of The Long Wave Cycle with longevity. In truth it is climatic, but time is a diabolic character. That is his very nature.
Fortunately he leaves tell -tale tracks in the sands of time.

Let’s see.

The sell-off from February 2025 top was a Flash Crash….sharp and abrupt playing out over two months.
The SPX staged 2 consecutive lower monthly lows to a test of its 50 month moving average.
Classic buy setup all the more textbook as the low tested almost to the dime the January 2022 top.
A Rembrandt.

In contrast the sell-off from the January 2022 top was a jagged, grinding decline spanning 9 months.
Likewise the decline tested the 50 month moving average.
The 3 Month Chart turned down in June 2022 eliciting a strong rally then we got a classic Undercut low in October.

NOVEMBER 2022 saw the market turn to the topside from a low of 3491.
It was by the way a perfect Time/Price Square-out as 349 squares October 13, the low day in 2022.

Who knew that Square-out would perpetuate an advance that at this point is verging on a 100% gain
In almost exactly 3 years.
That would occur at 6982.
Markets seek equilibrium so never say never.

I certainly did not envision a move to 6800 in 3 years.
That said Mr. Market, like the Fed, does its best not to blind side market participants—for better or worse—.
By that I mean the SPX carved out a Monthly Cup & Handle on the correction into October 2023 into October 2023 on the 1 year cycle..

That projection called for 6125 virtually a direct hit with the Feb 2025 top of 6147.
Technical analysis, what a concept.
The subsequent Flash Crash clearly looked like the “real deal” (top) following such a perfected run-up
From the October 2022 bottom.

However the recovery back to February’s price high of 6147 was rapid.
The price action since it was taken out has been more grinding than vertical through the lens of the daily chats.
However viewed through the prism of the monthlies, the action has remained vertical since the April 2025 low.

The takeaway is that the Principle of Alternation played out: the grinding decline in 2022 was followed by a Flash Crash in the spring of 2025.

Where are we now and what should we expect?

Two weeks ago we stated that relentless intense volatility should be the rule into October 26.
My expectation was an 8 to 10% drop given we haven’t had a correction to speak of since the April 7 low.
While the headline indices never satisfied a normal 8 to 10% correction many glamours exceeded that in a big way.
ALAB, BE NBIS. IREN, MP, OKLO and STX to mention a few.
All I can say is it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market.

Last week with the end of the volatility warp window we expected due to close,
We alerted that a monster rally may unleash.

Friday, D-Day, October 26, the SPX gapped up to record highs and extended,
With the futures ripping Sunday night on yet another China/U.S. kiss and make-up, the monster rally may be in gear.

Couple that with the Fed set to cut mid-week and our idea of a spike into the key November 7 to 13 time frame looks doable.

Last week we noted that a key November 7 date squares out with 703 (7030). In league with a “double” off the October 2022 bottom.
Straight across and opposite Nov 7 and 90 degrees below 703 is 677 (6770).

Obviously, the SPX closed above 6770 on the Friday weekly closing basis. That’s a feather in the bulls cap as long as it holds this region.

For the last year I’ve been thinking out loud that we may see an inversion to the time cycle from 1929.
In other words we may get a spike high in the time frame of the 1929 spike crash low.

The initial low in the 1929 crash was October 29. The secondary low was November 13.

We also know that the YEAR 1929 is straight across and opposite November 19.

Just like the YEAR 1987 is square October 29, the Big Kahuna in 1929.

Happenstance?

To recap, November 7 aligns with the YEAR 2025.

We will know soon enough, but it is interesting that November 7 is 7 Gann Panic months from the April 7th low.

It is interesting that November 7th was a Pivot high in 2018 prior to a crash into Xmas…SEVEN years ago.

I know, I know “What’s in the box?” Brad Pitt wants to know.

The bulls are clearly not just loaded for bull but loaded for De Bull of Bulls Finale.

What if El Matador is not just a beach in Malibu?

Is it plausible that all the bulls playing footsie with this monster (rally) are all going to get a graceful exit?

This ain’t Young Frankenstein. This advance is coming up on 17 years old…and is more than 10 X from the low.

I hear a lot of thinking that says that there are so many people warning of a Bubble Top and bust
That it can’t happen. At least not now with many expressing concern.

In fact, there was significant public discussion about a stock market bubble in 1999, most prominently regarding the rapidly inflating dot-com sector. Warnings were issued from a variety of sources, including Federal Reserve officials and financial analysts, though the excitement surrounding the “new economy” led many to dismiss these concerns.

This is backwards thinking.

In fact, there was significant talk about a speculative bubble in America before the stock market crash of 1929. Public officials, bankers, journalists, and some economists voiced alarm about the excessive speculation and credit-fueled investing that had gripped the nation during the “Roaring Twenties”.

Today there is significant talk of a bubble. Many professionals and retail market participants
Assume that because there is so much talk of a bubble that a crash is unlikely.

Could a monster rally hit the top blue trend line on the big picture NDX below?
Hell in a Super Cycle Top scenario it could overthrow it.
But is it stretched and hitting an important level right here? Yes.

The SPX has satisfied a possible Megaphone Top with Friday’s rally.
This is a pattern just how it sounds with successive new high and new lows producing a Megaphone.

The trigger is a reversal back below the start of the pattern..6699.
What will it take the Johnnie Come Latelies to smell they’ve been had?

If that level gets taken out this week it will also trigger a Soup Nazi sell setup as well as a Jump The Creek sell signal if Friday’s open gap is offset.

The Rug Pull is coming. It’s a matter of Pay Me Now Or Pay Me Later.
Theoretically it may wait until 2026.
Will Mr. Market accommodate those players looking to push capital gains into 2026?

If a monster rally continues out into mid-November a different setup will line up.

That said a big opportunity is setting up with one of my strongest time/price/pattern strategies with a big payday If it triggers this quarter.

If the market continues higher it’s not a big deal because the risk to reward will have us buying out of the money puts at the proper moment.

Why do you need me when you can pull the trigger on any turndown on your own?

In a word. You won’t
Psychology is such that you have to buy advice to be able to act on it. This is simply the way human nature is.
The market is a psychological game.

As the legendary Howard Marks states, “Psychology is more important than accounting and finance.”

https://x.com/0xmitsurii/status/1981774629137264970

Tomorrow’s report will look at Gann’s Time Factors comparing 1929 and 2025.

Do they ring a bell at the top?