Early in 2025 Bloomberg’s Simon White showed a combination of key financial metrics surpassing the extremes of 1929, 1966 (a Secular Bull market top) and 1999—all years that marked turns into major bear markets.
In August this chart pushed to another all time high. The market has never been more overvalued.
That does not mean it cannot go higher.
Indeed if a Super Cycle Top is playing out, the expectation would be that these combined metrics would surpass those prior peaks—perhaps in a stunningly euphoric way, dragging naysayers and those on the sidelines into the fray with a fantastic crescendo.
Like the finale of a fireworks display.
That’s how the 2000 top culminated.
From a breakout in mid-March 2000, the SPX exploded 10% (150 points in 7 days).
It left a signal bar reversal on the high day, March 24th, a Lizard sell signal.
However from the low prior to the breakout pivot the last ditch run was 17% in roughly 3 weeks.
From the recent SPX 6360 low two weeks ago a similar 17% run for the roses equates to the 7440 region.
What I find interesting about this analogue is that 739/740 (7390-7440 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite April 7. The big low in 2025.
As well 739/740 points to/is direct October 9th.
The bull market top in 2007 was on October 11. The closing high was Oct 9.
The bear market low in 2002 was on October 10. The closing low was Oct 9.
Anniversary dates were a big factor in WD Gann’s forecasting.
That is assuming momentum surges from here.
Is it possible that the Fed cuts 50 basis points this week throwing fire on animal spirits?
If the market pulls back instead… IF a last ditch run is on the table there is a lot of synergy with November which we’ve walked thru before.
Suffice to say that the year 2025 points to November 4t on the Sq of 9 Wheel.
The Q’s are the lead dog and they have carved out a massive 14 month Megaphone Top.
It’s debatable whether the Megaphone is complete.
GLD kicked off 2025 with a 4 month parabolic move into April where it consolidated for 4 months before breaking out of a “flat-top”
You have to believe what you see, until proven otherwise, but such “layups” make me suspect.
This week begins “Week 3” of the Rule of 3 Spike.
Notice that this week a Bottoms Line intersects with the April peak.
So it will be interesting to see if this breakout is the real deal or exhausts itself on the “3rd bar” as spikes into August/September have often seen selling climaxes in gold.
For example 2011.
GLD had a 3 day air pocket in August 2011 following a parabolic run.
It undercut its 20 DMA and a Bottoms Line before rallying to a Secondary High in September.
The next drop below the 20 DMA and the Bottoms Line sealed the deal on the downside.
GLD sank for 4 years.
With large speculators and small speculators positioned aggressively bullish in contrast to commercials being short, protective stops could be triggered at any time leading to an air-pocket.
A daily GLD shows trend was broken in July with the broken trend line being backtested last week.
I would not be surprised to see a quick shake-out.
Checking a weekly GLD shows it has struck the top of an 18 month channel, a cube-out in time of 540 days/degrees.
On the Sq of 9 Wheel the 2011 high squares-out with 3483.
Bitcoin triggered a weekly Soup Nazi sell signal from all time highs on the week of 8/11.
It went on to immediately turn its 3 Week Chart down, testing its 20 week MA.
The normal expectation would be for a rally and we got one.
This week is critical because on trade above last week’s high Bitcoin will go into the weekly Minus One/Plus Two sell position.
Considering the weeks of distribution since July, caution is warranted..
Breakage below the 3 Week Chart low at 107,790 opens the down door with 180 degrees down from high just below at 105,000.
From my perspective, breakage below 105,000 opens the door to a meltdown.
Bitcoin has a strong correlation to risk on so a failure below 105,000 will be a good tell on the stock market.
NFLX is a leader that hasn’t been leading since July.
It squandered a potentially bullish Blade Runner buy setup in early September on a rally above its Right Shoulder but reversed lower back below a 20/50 MA Bowtie.
Fast moves come from false moves and it looks line NFLX is flirting with breaking a Neckline at the 1180 region opening the door lower.
NFLX is one of many Generals that have fled the battlefield as the SPX gets underpinned by the Mag 7’s.
